OK, as expected linux-firmware upgrade seems to be unrelated. After doing more than two dozen shutdowns with each kernel (4.15.0-10 and 4.15.0-12) I see the following pattern:
* secure boot enabled or disabled makes no difference
* kernel 4.15.0-10 correctly powers off system (halt -p) every time, power source makes no difference
* kernel 4.15.0-12 correctly powers off system only when running on AC
* kernel 4.15.0-12 does NOT power off system (reboots instead) when AC power is NOT connected (running on battery) every time
OK, as expected linux-firmware upgrade seems to be unrelated. After doing more than two dozen shutdowns with each kernel (4.15.0-10 and 4.15.0-12) I see the following pattern:
* secure boot enabled or disabled makes no difference
* kernel 4.15.0-10 correctly powers off system (halt -p) every time, power source makes no difference
* kernel 4.15.0-12 correctly powers off system only when running on AC
* kernel 4.15.0-12 does NOT power off system (reboots instead) when AC power is NOT connected (running on battery) every time