-- 
   One suggestion as to tentative expected return and risk is to use the
observed return and risk for some period of the past. I believe that
better methods, which take into account more information, can be found.
I believe that what is needed is essentially a "probabilistic"
reformulation of security analysis. I wi]l not pursue this subject here,
for this is "another story." It is a story of which I have read only the
first page of the first chapter.

"Markowitz"