> I do questions the result of this effort. It seems regardless how much
> effort ever is spent it has no effect at all on Microsoft's market
> share. 

http://members.shaw.ca/Limulus/files/w3sbw2-0801.png
Above: Firefox is now more popular than any version of IE, and will soon be more popular than all versions of IE. Firefox is a massive threat to Windows (a la Netscape 1995) as it allows clever programmers to develop applications directly for the browser, bypassing the Operating System. more users of standards compliant browsers means more webmasters coding for standards compliant browsers - which will make it more difficult for Microsoft to reverse the decline in popularity of their browser.

http://www.seopher.com/images/landscape/vista-players.gif
Above: Great excitement on the internerd when Vista was released. Now, although it's used a lot, nobody is really as interested in it any more. Where is that green line going to sink to??

http://www.seopher.com/images/landscape/everyone.gif
To put it into perspective, Vista is still very popular.

NOTE: Google Trends is not a great source for meaningful statistics.

http://www.w3.org/2005/Talks/200509Berlin/mobiledevice-stats.PNG
Above: As more powerful browsers (From Opera, Safari and Mozilla) emerge on handheld devices, Internet Explorer suffers (although the effect must be minimal). ... In any event, Opera Mini/IE users have to ask themselves now: Why does this website look so much better on my cellphone than it does on my desktop? And it DOES! Opera Mini has a far higher level of CSS support than IE, and is only a few kilobytes in size. Even Lynx is more powerful than IE. It's about fifty times as fast, a thousand times more secure, and it supports HTML and XHTML (neither of which are supported by Internet Explorer - IE can't even discover linked RSS yet, can it?? Haaaaa ha!)

http://cru.cahe.wsu.edu/WebLog/ColumbiaPlateau/Daily_Used_Operating_Systems.png
Above: On a day to day basis, The number of Vista users visiting internet sites looks comparable to the number of Linux users. Could it be that people are buying Vista and throwing it away?? Of course, I'm only looking at this one graph. You should make your own graphs if you doubt my methods.

Below, let's take a look at some initiatives which you might be aware of but perhaps don't grasp the gravity of.
Google is eating Microsoft for breakfast:
http://code.google.com/opensource/wine.html

Wait, Gooooooooogle is doing all that work on WINE? WIne Is Not an Emulator?? YES.

Steve B from Microsoft:
"I'm going to fucking Kill Google!"

Also note their adsense fetish for converting users to Firefox.

It's working though. Thanks partly to Google's efforts and $$$, Photoshop CS2 runs on Linux under WINE (slowwwwwly):
http://www.google.co.nz/search?q=photoshop+cs2+wine

Microsoft is continually breaking things; Linux offers the stability that we NEED in our Offices, in our Arcades, in our radio stations. Linux will give you years of uptime without a reboot under certain configurations. That's more than notable.
http://wastingtimewithmikeandari.wordpress.com/2008/01/31/linux-has-better-windows-compatibility-than-vista/

Note that the above post could be considered heavily biased flamebait.... But even the fact that it can be said honestly btu not disputed honestly is a big thing.

Even in the most pessimistic chart I could find (does anybody else notice how the points add up to more than 100% of the total market share??) shows some goodness:
http://www.seopher.com/images/ostrends/vista.gif

Some sources (Microsoft Probably included) will tell you (and believe) that Vista is making a meteoric rise. Even if it's true, XP's popularity is understandably falling. Who's picking up the slack here. Sure, Vista is growing on this graph faster than XP is falling, but, nonsensically, Linux is also growing - at almost the same rate in the decline in Vista.

So there, even the most pessimistic and ass-backwards measurements say that while small, Linux is gathering speed and making inroads. It is!!

Now for some more pessimism:
Ubuntu is the future of Linux? Maybe. Partly. If you're wondering that, you're asking the wrong question. You should be asking, will Microsoft still be on top in twenty years? I don't think so.
Twenty years? Yeah. I'm being pessimistic. With computer manufacturers and retailers supplying Linux and a growing casual user base, the rate of growth here is expected to accelerate. It only makes sense. It's viral.

Don't expect a mass migration to Linux like I did when I was twelve. Don't expect All your favourite applications to be ported overnight. Do expect miracles.

You know how the saying goes:
"BE REALISTIC: PLAN FOR A MIRACLE"

So you know, I am. Browsers are the biggest thing to me right now; partly because I do so much work with them and partly because the Internet is Microsoft's natural enemy. I use FIrefox at home most of the time (extensions)....
And I am always trying to convert people - but I don't push Firefox as hard as I can. I will defend Firefox, but I will support anyone who decides to try out Opera.
The main thing is that they're not using Internet Explorer.