Ubuntu download counter

[Evan Boldt]

I would like to add an Ubuntu download counter to the home page of SpreadUbuntu similar to the one that SpreadFirefox has.

I know we would need some special collection, since it wouldn't be a simple log. We could talk to Newz about getting that information from the mirrors, then using some more retrieval to add the stats from the torrent tracker.

[Ruben Romero (huayra)]

On Mon, Aug 3, 2009 at 11:34 PM, Evan Boldt <email address hidden> wrote:

> Public bug reported:
>
> I would like to add an Ubuntu download counter to the home page of
> SpreadUbuntu similar to the one that SpreadFirefox has.
>
> I know we would need some special collection, since it wouldn't be a
> simple log. We could talk to Newz about getting that information from
> the mirrors, then using some more retrieval to add the stats from the
> torrent tracker.
>

I have spoken with Matthew (newz2000) about this earlier, but it seems that
Canonical does not actually come out with download statistics for Ubuntu.

I would though like to try to get this, or at least get some pin point of
the number of users in the world (for instance based on the Linux Counter
and the Ubuntu prevalence as the distro of use in their registered
statistics).

Of course having a tracker the Mozilla style would e the bomb, but I would
honestly be happy with whatever we can get.

I am going to write to the Web Presence team and hear their thoughts.

R.

[Evan Boldt (echowarp)]

I've made some good progress on this.

This php script will be run routinely on a cron run every couple minutes. I have had it running for about a week to a week and it says that Ubuntu (and all of its derivatives and past versions) have been downloaded 1.6 MILLION times.

Does this sound plausible? It only tracks torrent traffic.

[Evan Boldt (echowarp)]

The download tracker looks at http://torrent.ubuntu.com:6969/ and gets the total downloads from the bottom of that table.

The problem is, they reset the tracker every hour or so, so it never gets to be a very big number.

I got around this by keeping a "running total" and the "previous total" in a local log file. If the number displayed on the tracker is less than the previously recorded number, then they reset the tracker, and add the unaltered download count to the running total.

If the number is the same or greater than, they did not reset the tracker, and we subtract the previous total from the current downloads and add that to the running total.

So. Is this accurate? Is this really how the tracker works?

I'm starting to suspect that maybe torrent clients that have already completed the download, report their download again if the tracker was reset.

[Ruben Romero (huayra)]

It sounds likely, indeed.

Are you adding information from all available trackers named ubuntu
and derivates? Or just 'official' trackers?

What would be interesting is tracking the thingy in real time, or make
the cron job run even more often (refresh every 15 seconds, f.eks.) så
it gives the real time feeling.

Now that I think about it I never sent an email to the web presence
team. Maybe if we get an image/icon running and/or just showing the
cron job generated statistics we could get more people interested?

Do we have something like that already?

If you could publish the cron data (log og txt file) we could have
something to show and work with (I am imagining that a shell script
could easily convert that data into an image).

Great work Evan :)

R.

2009/9/19, Evan Boldt <email address hidden>:
> I've made some good progress on this.
>
> This php script will be run routinely on a cron run every couple
> minutes. I have had it running for about a week to a week and it says
> that Ubuntu (and all of its derivatives and past versions) have been
> downloaded 1.6 MILLION times.
>
> Does this sound plausible? It only tracks torrent traffic.
>
> ** Changed in: spreadubuntu
> Importance: Wishlist => Medium
>
> ** Changed in: spreadubuntu
> Assignee: (unassigned) => Evan Boldt (edb82189)
>
> --
> Ubuntu download counter
> https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/408598
> You received this bug notification because you are a member of
> SpreadUbuntu Admins, which is subscribed to SpreadUbuntu.
>
> Status in SpreadUbuntu: Confirmed
>
> Bug description:
> I would like to add an Ubuntu download counter to the home page of
> SpreadUbuntu similar to the one that SpreadFirefox has.
>
> I know we would need some special collection, since it wouldn't be a simple
> log. We could talk to Newz about getting that information from the mirrors,
> then using some more retrieval to add the stats from the torrent tracker.
>

[Evan Boldt (echowarp)]

Its only the official tracker, which also includes all of the derivatives and alpha versions.

It runs every 2 minutes, so it's REALLY close to real time.

I'll attach my log. Its a csv, and i bz2 compressed it.

[Evan Boldt (echowarp)]

The log now says that we've reached 2.4 million downloads in 9 days.

By comparison, FF 3.5 has been downloaded on average 2.6 million times a day since june 30th.

So, according to my log, Ubuntu receives 10% of the number of downloads Firefox gets per day. (223,000 vs 2,600,000)

This seems possible to me, except that this is ONLY torrent downloads.
What portion of users download Ubuntu using a torrent? 10%? If that guess were true, Ubuntu would be just as popular as Firefox 3.5, and I kind of doubt that, but it is possible.

On the other hand, these numbers are an accumulation of all of the different Ubuntu derivatives, and all of each of their versions, old and alpha.

Also, the csv is really interesting if you import it to open office, and do the derivative (current cell minus previous cell), then graph it on a line graph.

This is really difficult, I cannot figure out if this method is accurate or not.
Does anyone have any thoughts on its accuracy?

[Ruben Romero (huayra)]

Maybe we can derivate which release has been downloaded out of the csv data?

We could make a stunt motivating people to use the torrent download by
release time:

1. This would take A LOT of load off the Canonical servers
2. Would drive ubuntu enthusiasts to promote torrents (and this by
itself give traction to the stunt/campaign)
3. Drive attention to SpreadUbuntu for new users and by that introduce
them to Ubuntu Marketing and help us spread the word while they are
still excited!

I am going to set aside some time this week to finish off the
marketing Jam page and call all teams to hold one for an easy
introduction to the site.

If you have ideas for such a presentation, maybe we can summarize them
in a new Bug or blueprint?

R.

2009/9/21, Evan Boldt <email address hidden>:
>
> The log now says that we've reached 2.4 million downloads in 9 days.
>
>
> By comparison, FF 3.5 has been downloaded on average 2.6 million times a day
> since june 30th.
>
>
> So, according to my log, Ubuntu receives 10% of the number of downloads
> Firefox gets per day. (223,000 vs 2,600,000)
>
> This seems possible to me, except that this is ONLY torrent downloads.
> What portion of users download Ubuntu using a torrent? 10%? If that guess
> were true, Ubuntu would be just as popular as Firefox 3.5, and I kind of
> doubt that, but it is possible.
>
> On the other hand, these numbers are an accumulation of all of the
> different Ubuntu derivatives, and all of each of their versions, old and
> alpha.
>
> Also, the csv is really interesting if you import it to open office, and
> do the derivative (current cell minus previous cell), then graph it on a
> line graph.
>
> This is really difficult, I cannot figure out if this method is accurate or
> not.
> Does anyone have any thoughts on its accuracy?
>
> --
> Ubuntu download counter
> https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/408598
> You received this bug notification because you are a member of
> SpreadUbuntu Admins, which is subscribed to SpreadUbuntu.
>
> Status in SpreadUbuntu: Confirmed
>
> Bug description:
> I would like to add an Ubuntu download counter to the home page of
> SpreadUbuntu similar to the one that SpreadFirefox has.
>
> I know we would need some special collection, since it wouldn't be a simple
> log. We could talk to Newz about getting that information from the mirrors,
> then using some more retrieval to add the stats from the torrent tracker.
>

[Evan Boldt (echowarp)]

Its on the homepage now.
I'm still not confident how accurate it is, but I think its close enough to be used for trending.